Description: A new statistical approach is presented for calculation of Incurred But Not yet Paid, IBNP, claim amounts. It is based on two new variant methods, the Simple Projected Paid Lag method and the Regressed Projected Paid Lag method.

Description: This paper develops a method for estimating the future claim costs of known ongoing large medical claims. It applies Least Squares analysis of historical experience to derive two arrays of factors. One array is to be applied as a vector inner product with claim costs already incurred and/or paid to project a total future claim cost. The second array distributes the total future claim cost over the months following the analysis date.